To forecast the state's adult and juvenile offender populations incarcerated in state institutions, and to determine the impact of proposed legislation on the prison population. In FY 1996, the legislation allocated resources to the Sentencing Commission for the acquisition of the PROPHET Simulation Model, an interactive microcomputer software system designed by the National Council on Crime and Delinquency (NCCD). The PROPHET model permits staff analysts to construct a model which mimics the flow of offenders through the prison and parole populations based on the state of Kansas' sentencing structure and policy environment. With the PROPHET model, population and movement through the prison system can be forecasted annually, for as far as ten years into the future. The model also allows staff analysts to determine the impact of proposed legislation on the prison population, thus facilitating the Commission's duty to prepare and submit fiscal impact and correctional resource statements as required. See K.S.A. 74-9101(b)(8). As of FY 1996, the Sentencing Commission is the provider of the official offender population projections for the State of Kansas. The first official ten year baseline projections of the adult prison population, using the PROPHET model, were released in November, 1995. In November, 1995, the Sentencing Commission extended its contract with NCCD, through a grant from the department of Social and Rehabilitation Services (SRS), to allow for the development of a juvenile detention module for PROPHET. The juvenile detention module will enable staff researchers to analyze juvenile offenders housed in urban and regional detention facilities throughout the state and to project and monitor detention center populations in a similar manner as the state prison population. In March, 1996, the Sentencing Commission was awarded a contract to conduct the state youth center population projections as part of the needs assessment study commissioned by the Youth Authority. These population projections will be the basis for the implementation of the Juvenile Justice Reform Act (HB 2900), which became effective July 1, 1997.
Objectives of Goal
- Delivery of the official prison population projections to the Department of Corrections and Legislative Committees on or before August 18, 1997.
- Delivery of the official regional juvenile detention center populations to Douglas County on November 1, 1997.
- Delivery of official juvenile correctional facility population projections on or before January 15, 1998.
- Preparation of population impacts of proposed legislation upon request by the Kansas Legislature or the Division of Budget.
- Development of database for extended juvenile jurisdiction and projected tracking and analysis.